Macro Regime Classification
A rules-based, multi-factor categorisation system that assigns the current market environment to one of four distinct regimes: Goldilocks (easing, growth), Reflation (tightening, growth), Stagflation (tightening, no growth), or Deflation (easing, contraction). Classification is determined by the direction of Net Liquidity Z-Score, yield curve slope, PMI trend, and commodity price momentum.
Live Intelligence Answer
Expansion
Current Market Regime: Expansion. Positioning should favor risk-on assets.
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Different asset classes systematically outperform in different regimes. Gold and bonds outperform in Deflation; equities and credit in Goldilocks; commodities and real assets in Reflation; cash and short-duration debt in Stagflation. Regime-aware portfolio construction materially improves risk-adjusted returns.
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Related Concepts
Loan-to-Job Efficiency Ratio
A proprietary India-specific indicator measuring the productivity of bank credit in generating formal employment. Computed as year-on-year Scheduled Commercial Bank credit growth rate divided by net EPFO subscriber additions (new formal jobs). A rising ratio indicates credit is increasingly channelled into non-employment-generating activities (asset inflation, debt restructuring), signalling K-shaped economic divergence.Energy Dependency Ratio
A country-level indicator measuring the share of primary energy consumption sourced from net imports. Calculated as gross energy imports minus gross energy exports, divided by total gross inland energy consumption. Countries with ratios above 70% (India: ~88%) face structural external account vulnerability to energy price shocks and geopolitical supply disruptions.Current Account Balance
The broadest measure of a country's international trade and financial flows, comprising the trade balance (goods and services), primary income (investment income, worker remittances), and secondary income (transfers). A current account deficit means a country spends more on foreign resources than it earns, requiring capital inflows to fund the gap — creating currency vulnerability when those inflows reverse.Ready to see this live?
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