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India
Intelligence

Institutional-grade telemetry for the world's fastest-growing major economy. Monitoring the RBI credit cycle, fiscal stress, and sovereign debt maturity walls in real-time.

Macro Pulse Fiscal Stress Credit Cycle RBI & FX State Fiscal Digital Premium Debt Wall

Macro Pulse

IIP, WPI, gold accumulation & BOP stress

Credit Cycle

RBI credit impulse & banking stress clock

Fiscal Health

Interest payments / revenue receipts ratio

Liquidity

Rupee liquidity surplus/deficit & SOFR spread

Debt Wall

G-Sec rollover risk by coupon bucket

RBI FX Defense

Forex reserves & RBI intervention posture

State Fiscal

Capex vs revenue expenditure by state

Money Market

Daily RBI money market terminal

Monthly Snapshot

India Macro Pulse

INDIA MACRO DASHBOARD

APRIL 2026

Geopolitical uncertainties weigh heavily on cross-border flows

The Apr'26 Macro Dashboard reflects the impact of geopolitical turmoil. Manufacturing PMI is at a 4-year low — a fallout of the West Asia War. Indian Railways saw record freight performance in FY26, with a 3.25% YoY increase. FY26 closed at +8% employment growth, the strongest in 3 years.

Metric Category

Nov-25

Dec-25

Jan-26

Feb-26

Mar-26

Apr-26

Naukri Job Index

3,001

2,637

3,233

2,858

Vehicle Registrationsmn units

3.33

2.04

2.75

2.42

2.70

0.89

GST Collections₹tn

1.82

1.77

1.96

1.84

1.92

CPI Inflation%

5.48

5.22

4.31

3.61

3.34

WPI Inflation%

1.89

2.37

2.31

2.38

2.05

Mfg PMI

56.5

57.7

56.3

58.1

48.2

Services PMI

58.4

59.3

56.5

57.4

57.5

Forex Reserves$bn

656.6

644.4

623.5

637.7

665.4

676.3

Positive

Neutral

Negative

Positive Signals

India's white-collar hiring saw 9% YoY rise, as FY26 closes at +8%, the strongest job growth in 3 years.
Monthly gross GST collections reached record high, driven by strong domestic activity.
System Liquidity continues to remain comfortable.

Structural Neutral

Vehicle retail sales kicked off FY27 with measured momentum, following a record-high FY26.

Macro Fragilities

CPI rose marginally driven primarily by rising food prices and fuel costs amid West Asia geopolitical tensions.
WPI inched higher due to crude petroleum & natural gas price rises.
Manufacturing PMI fell sharply — dragged down by the impact of the West Asia war on costs and demand. Services PMI slowed to a 14-month low of 57.5.

India Macro Pulse

Institutional-grade telemetry tracking credit stress, industrial output, and state-level energy transition alpha.

INDIA MACRO

MoSPI Institutional Feed

Live Signal

Economic Misery Index

10.5

Aggregated(CPI + Unemp)

GDP Growth YOY

7.2%

Consumer Inflation

5.1%

Unemployment Rate

5.4%

Industrial Output

7.8%

Energy & Efficiency Terminal

WTI SpreadNORMAL

Stable conditions: Equilibrium persisting.

0.00

24H DELTA PULSE

WTI Physical Market Stress

CL1 - CL2 Calendar Spread (Front Month vs Next Month)

Current Spread

0.00

Aggregate Coal

99,640KToE

Renewable Alpha

77.0%

System Demand

1,133,760KToE

Relative Intensity

77.7

Sub-National Energy Matrix

Interactive choropleth • High-fidelity telemetry

Tier-1 Node Ranking

Live Buffer

Select a state on the map for
high-frequency drill-down

Composite Efficiency Indices

Computed Real-Time • MoSPI + FRED Sources

Live

Inflation-Resilient Growth

NAS CPI WPI

4.2%

GDP - Avg(CPI, WPI)

Higher = better for growth

Wholesale Cost Efficiency

IIP WPI (Fred)

1.7%

IIP Growth - WPI Mfg

Higher = better (margin expansion)

Real Wage Efficiency

PLFS CPI

15.8

(Wage / CPI) * LFPR

Higher = better wage quality

Capital-Wage Productivity

ASI PLFS

4.9

ASI Cap / Wage Level

Higher = better capital efficiency

Energy Intensity (Ind)

ENERGY ASI

0.0

Ind Energy / ASI GVA

Lower = better efficiency

Industrial Labor Prod

ASI

131.3 Cr/W

ASI GVA / Employment

Higher = better productivity

Urban-Rural Efficiency

PLFS

0.6

Rural UR / Urban UR

~1.0 = balanced growth

Fuel Cost Stability

CPI

0.0%

CPI Fuel & Light

Lower = better stability

Renewable Capacity

ENERGY

14.5%

Renewable % Total

Higher = better transition

Economic Activity Pulse

Industrial Growth (IIP)

7.8%

WPI Inflation

0.8%

Retail Velocity

6.5%

Gold Accumulation

854.7t

ASI Industrial Matrix

Sub-national industrial resolution tracking Manufacturing and Mining output with high-fidelity labor benchmarks.

Geospatial Intensity

Regional Industrial Map

National Buffer

All India Aggregates

GVA Total

₹17.0T

Employment

33.7M

Cap Util

68.9%

YoY Growth

0.0%

Loan-to-Job Efficiency

$40,250CAPEX / NEW JOB

Tier-1 States

UPI AUTOPAY FAILURE RATE

Consumer Credit Stress Proxy

1.45%

+0.03% MoM

STRESS SIGNAL: ELEVATED

History: 12m trend

Updated: 2026-03-01

BOP Pressure Terminal

External Sector Stability Matrix

Protocol: Stable

Stability Indicator	Live Value	Risk Analysis	Regime Delta
Current Account Deficit (CAD)	-0.7%	Safe	Improving
FX Reserves (Months Cover)	11.2m	Safe	Stable
Basic Balance (FDI + CAD)	+$2.1B	Safe	Positive
Real Effective Exchange Rate	104.2	Warning	Overvalued
External Debt (Short-term)	18.4%	Safe	Low Risk

Aggregated via Reserve Bank telemetry & Custom Flows

Sticky Trend: ACCELERATINGAlpha Signal: Structural Trend Monitor

India Inflation Pulse: Sticky vs Flexible

Headline CPI

2.40%

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

Sticky Divergence

+1.10%

VS HEADLINE

Flexible Volatility

0.55%

MONTHLY SWING

Structural Signal

Sticky inflation rising suggests structural demand pressure. RBI stance likely hawk.

Headline CPI

Sticky (Structural)

Flexible (Volatile)

RBI Corridor: 2% - 6%

Macro Analyst Insight

Flexible inflation cooling on monsoon/fuel tailwinds, but the Sticky component remains lodge above headline levels. This signals structural demand-side heat in services and housing, likely forcing the RBI to maintain a 'Higher for Longer' stance despite optics of a falling headline rate.

The Divergence

110BPS

India Fiscal Stress Monitor

Tracking India central government fiscal vulnerability and debt sustainability

Interest BurdenELEVATED

Debt SustainabilitySTABLE

Fiscal Thesis:India's interest-to-revenue ratio remains the primary structural constraint on capital expenditure. While GST collections show formalization, the interest burden consumes over 34.7% of revenue receipts, requiring a sustained "Goldilocks" growth-inflation mix for debt sustainability.

Interest Payments % of Revenue Receipts

Union Government Fiscal Sustainability Gauge

34.7%

CurrentCrisis: >35%

Interest/Expenditure

23.4%

Share of government expenditure consumed by debt service.

of Total Spendingup

Interest/GTR

30.9%

Interest payments as percentage of gross tax revenue.

of Tax Revenueup

Fiscal Deficit/GDP

0.0%

Annual fiscal deficit as percentage of GDP.

Budget Gapdown

Debt/GDP

0.0%

General government debt as percentage of GDP.

Total Debtstable

Source: Union Budget / PRS India / RBI DBIE – updated monthly

Real-time Stress GaugeSource: RBI DBIE / CCIL

India Funding Stress & Liquidity

Latest WACR

5.15%-5 bps

MSF Spread (Breach)

-35 bps

WITHIN CORRIDOR

Net LAF Position

₹302B

SURPLUS

Liquidity Normal

Rates anchored within corridor. No systemic funding stress detected.

Systemic Liquidity

RBI Net LAF Injection (₹ Trillion)

Money Market Pressure

WACR/TREPS vs. Policy Corridor (%)

MSF (Cap)
Repo
WACR
TREPS

Structural Insight

Liquidity remains broadly balanced. Systemic rates are anchored within the collateralized repo corridor, suggesting supportive conditions for credit growth and equity positioning.

Breach Intensity

Proprietary RBI Signal

Credit Cycle Clock

Where we are in the RBI credit cycle based on lending growth vs systemic liquidity.

Systemic Credit (YoY)

12.1%

DECEL

Higher = Stronger real-economy lending

Deposit Mobilization

10.8%

Higher = Improving systemic funding

CD Ratio

80.2%

DECEL

Higher = Tighter banking liquidity

March 2026 Regime

Downturn

Credit growth has peaked and CD ratios are stretching systemic funding limits. Reserve Bank intervention is typically expected.

Note: Quadrant boundaries are calibrated to 10-year RBI reporting averages (Mid: 14.5% Credit YoY, 77% CD Ratio).

Expansion

Recovery

Downturn

Repair

Recovery

Expansion

Downturn

Repair

INDIA DEBT MATURITY WALL

Redemption profile of Sovereign Dated Securities (G-Sec) and State Development Loans (SDL).

Total Outstanding

₹105.80Lakh Cr

Next 12M Maturing

₹4.85Lakh Cr

4.6% of total debt stock

Rollover Status

Maturity wall is well-distributed. Historical bias towards 10Y+ duration persists.

Central G-Sec

Source: RBI DBIE / Handbook of Statistics

Updated Monthly

RBI FX Defense Monitor

Live SignalSource: RBI DBIE

FX Defense & Currency War Monitor

Headline FX Reserves

$584.6B+8.2B

Net Forward Book

$0.0B

Net Long (Buying)

REER Valuation Premium

-0.8 pts

REER: 97.5 | NEER: 98.2

Spot FX Reserves
Net Forward Book
REER (40-Curr)
NEER (40-Curr)

Analyst Insight

RBI maintaining a balanced defense posture. Intervention focus shifting dynamically between spot accumulation and forward book management based on daily volatility.

Defense Stance

Symmetrical Accumulation

Daily Money Market Terminal

RBI System Liquidity Position

0Cr

Liquidity Deficit

SDF Rate—Standing Deposit

Repo Rate6.50%Policy Anchor

MSF Rate—Marginal Standing

WACR—Market Reality

Interest Rate Corridor Dynamics

Historical Series

WACR
Triparty Repo
Market Repo

Segment Allocation

Call Money—

₹0Cr

Triparty Repo—

₹0Cr

Market Repo—

₹0Cr

Institutional Insight: WACR is currently trading below the Policy Repo Rate, reflecting tight interbank conditions.

State-Level Fiscal Intelligence

India Fiscal Allocation Tracker

Capital Expenditure (Capex) vs Revenue Expenditure / Freebies mix

Live Flow: FY 2024-25 Budgetary Pulse

+16% YoY

Central Capex Momentum

₹11.1L CrUnion Budget Allocation

Direct budgetary allocation for high-multiplier infrastructure projects.

Sustainable

Capex % Total Spending

23.0%Allocation Quality

Share of total expenditure invested in productive asset creation.

Elevated

Freebie/Committed Risk

44.4%of Revenue Receipts

Subsidies + Committed exp (Salaries, Pensions) as % of Net Receipts.

State-Level Capex Velocity

Interactive choropleth: Capex % GSDP

Capex Intensity (%)

High (4%+)

Neutral (1.5 - 2.5%)

Low (< 1%)

Efficiency Trends

Consolidated General Govt (Center + States)

Capital vs Revenue Dynamics

Combined Rev Exp %
Combined Capex %
Center Subsidy Burden

Source: Finance.gov.in (Expenditure Profile) / RBI State Finances Report / PRS India analysis

State Fiscal Health Matrix

Outstanding Debt vs. Fiscal Deficit (% GSDP)

Debt-Driven

Fiscal Trap (Stress)

Fiscal Fortress

Growth-Driven

SDL Spread Narrative

Market analysts trade the SDL-G-Sec spreads based on relative fiscal slippage.

Stress Signal

States in the Top-Right Trap (GFD > 3.5%, Debt > 30%) are primary candidates for spread widening. Market demands higher liquidity premiums for these issuances.

Solvency Alpha

Fiscal Fortresses (Bottom-Left) typically trade at the tightest spreads to 10Y G-Sec, reflecting institutional confidence and superior treasury management.

Source: RBI State Finances 2024-25

Live Spread Pulse

India Stack — Digitization Premium

Alpha Signal: Formal Economy ScalingSource: RBI / NPCI / IMF

India Digitization & Formalization Premium

Latest UPI Vol

12.7B

1.0% MoM SURGE

DPI Index Score

558.6

BASE 2018 = 100

Formalization Premium

252.2%

VS G20 BASELINE

Premium Active

India's DPI infrastructure is driving structural nominal GDP efficiency vs EM peers. Significant FDI narrative de-risking sovereign bonds.

The Parabolic Surge

UPI Volume (Bn) & Value (₹ Trillion)

Volume

Value

The Digitization Premium

RBI DPI Index vs. G20 EM Baseline

India DPI Index

G20 Baseline

Structural Efficiency Narrative

India's digitization is no longer just about payments; it's a formalization engine. Unified Payments Interface (UPI) scale is driving tax buoyancy (GST) and credit democratization for MSMEs. This provides a structural efficiency premium over EM peers, justifying premium equity multiples and supporting sovereign debt stability.

Formalization Alpha Score

Tier 1 Performance

Structural Analysis: India's Macro Resilience & Fiscal Quality

The India Intelligence Hub monitors highly granular, state-level macroeconomic indicators to evaluate the fundamental structural transition of the Indian economy. Unlike traditional emerging market (EM) trackers that rely on lagging, aggregated national data, GraphiQuestor connects directly to the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This zero-lag integration enables real-time observation of the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), Consumer Price Index (CPI), and capital expenditure velocities across all 28 states.

A critical differentiator in India's sovereign health is the quality of its fiscal expenditure. The State Fiscal Heatmap tracks the ratio of productive capital expenditure (Capex) against recurring revenue expenditure (subsidies and freebies). States demonstrating high Capex velocity generally command a lower structural risk premium and drive the nation's broader industrial upgrading capacity.

Furthermore, the hub actively monitors the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FX defense posture. By combining Balance of Payments (BOP) pressure gauges with liquidity stress monitors, institutional investors can pinpoint precise entry and exit windows for Indian equities and sovereign debt, insulated from short-term narrative noise.