US Treasury Foreign Holdings & Selloff Risk

Tracking the transition of the US Treasury market from a globally absorbed asset to a domestically financed liability.

The Reserve-Seller Tracker: Who is Dumping USTs?

Reserve-Seller Tracker

Monitoring secondary market liquidations. High oil prices force energy importers and petrodollar anchors to rotate UST Holdings to maintain liquidity.

Global Energy Context

$79.10Brent / BBL

🇯🇵

Japan

G7 Powerhouse

UST Holdings

$1191.6B

0.5%

Total Reserves

$1200.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇨🇳

China

BRICS Anchor

UST Holdings

$652.3B

4.6%

Total Reserves

$3300.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇮🇳

India

Emerging Markets

UST Holdings

$183.0B

0.1%

Total Reserves

$650.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇸🇦

GCC / Saudi Arabia

Petrodollar Anchor

UST Holdings

$149.6B

0.1%

Total Reserves

$440.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇰🇷

South Korea

Major Reserve Hub

UST Holdings

$136.8B

2.7%

Total Reserves

$420.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇹🇼

Taiwan

Major Reserve Hub

UST Holdings

$300.8B

3.2%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇸🇬

Singapore

Financial Center

UST Holdings

$274.3B

1.5%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇭🇰

Hong Kong

Financial Center

UST Holdings

$278.2B

3.9%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇬🇧

United Kingdom

G7 Powerhouse

UST Holdings

$926.9B

7.4%

Total Reserves

$190.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇦🇪

UAE

Petrodollar Anchor

UST Holdings

$114.1B

19.4%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇧🇷

Brazil

Emerging Markets

UST Holdings

$168.0B

0.4%

Total Reserves

$355.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇨🇭

Switzerland

Financial Center

UST Holdings

$286.4B

2.6%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇱🇺

Luxembourg

Offshore Hub

UST Holdings

$432.0B

0.5%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

🇰🇾

Cayman Islands

Offshore Hub

UST Holdings

$459.4B

9.1%

Total Reserves

$0.0B

0.0%

Neutral Accumulation

Active Signal: Selling Condition Met

*UST Holdings derived from TIC Long-Term Securities. Reserves represent official gross FX excluding Gold.

Specific data on PBoC and Bank of Japan (BoJ) Treasury liquidation. We distinguish between active strategic selling (China reducing USD exposure) and tactical FX defense selling (Japan defending the Yen).

COFER Composition Shifts

Global Reserve Tracker

Monitoring the structural rotation of global reserves. We track the migration from USD Hegemony toward Multipolar Hard Assets.

Global USD Reserve Share

25-Year Institutional History

57.7%

Official Global Share

Visualizing the secular erosion of USD hegemony as central banks rotate toward multi-polar alternatives.

Structural Erosion

Source: IMF COFER / WGC

Global Gold Reserve Share

25-Year Institutional History

15.4%

Official Global Share

Physical gold returns as the ultimate neutral reserve asset, with allocation expanding at an accelerating pace.

Strategic Expansion

Source: IMF COFER / WGC

Structural Signal

Central banks are currently in a rotation phase. While USD remains the primary denominator, the persistent accumulation of physical gold by non-Western powers indicates a "shadow" hedging regime against future fiat volatility.

Connecting the Treasury selloff directly to the IMF's COFER data. As foreign central banks balk at the US fiscal trajectory, capital rotates into non-traditional reserve currencies and physical gold.

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