Sunday, June 7, 2026

WHAT CHANGED OVERNIGHT

• ◆India FX reserves rose $2.4bn WoW to $665.4bn — RBI buffer strengthening ahead of monsoon season
• ◆US 10Y yield +6bps overnight to 4.48% — real yield approaching 2% resistance level
• ◆Gold held $2,340/oz despite dollar strength — central bank bid floor confirmed at $2,300
• ◆India Manufacturing PMI at 58.1 — fourth consecutive month above 57, strongest in 3 years

REGIME STATUS

Macro regime remains Neutral at 55/100 with liquidity conditions supportive despite restrictive policy backdrop. The USD-Gold divergence is the primary contradiction to monitor — historically resolves in favor of gold when fiscal dominance dynamics dominate.

India & US Macro & Gold & De-Dollarization SIGNALS

• ◆India credit cycle in Downturn quadrant — CD ratio 80.2% signals RBI liquidity management ahead
• ◆Debt/Gold ratio at 29.1x — structural bid for hard assets as US debt monetization ratio approaches 20%
• ◆US Treasury auction bid-to-cover at 2.52x — institutional demand holding, but 10Y weak relative to bills

WATCH TODAY

• →RBI MPC decision Friday — watch Governor Malhotra speech for forward guidance on liquidity stance
• →US 30Y auction — demand score vs 5-year average will signal foreign central bank appetite
• →Gold $2,350 resistance — break would confirm central bank accumulation phase continuation