Macro Regime Classification
Definition
A rules-based, multi-factor categorisation system that assigns the current market environment to one of four distinct regimes: Goldilocks (easing, growth), Reflation (tightening, growth), Stagflation (tightening, no growth), or Deflation (easing, contraction). Classification is determined by the direction of Net Liquidity Z-Score, yield curve slope, PMI trend, and commodity price momentum.
Live Intelligence Answer
Tightening
Current Market Regime: Tightening. Positioning should favor defensive assets.
View in TerminalWhy It Matters
Different asset classes systematically outperform in different regimes. Gold and bonds outperform in Deflation; equities and credit in Goldilocks; commodities and real assets in Reflation; cash and short-duration debt in Stagflation. Regime-aware portfolio construction materially improves risk-adjusted returns.
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