DETECTION: EXPANSION
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GraphiQuestor Intelligence Series

China
Macro Hub

Institutional-grade macro intelligence for the world's second-largest economy. Daily coverage of PBOC liquidity operations, PMI divergence, trade flows, energy transition, and proprietary signals — designed for symmetric East vs West macro analysis.

Policy Intelligence

China 15th
Five-Year Plan

Structural shift to high-quality development & tech self-reliance.

Grain Output
1.45 Trillion Jin
Carbon Intensity
-18%
R&D Growth
>7% Yearly
Unemployment Rate
<5.5%
Mission Control

China Macro Pulse

High-frequency activity monitor tracking liquidity impulse, industrial velocity, and de-dollarization momentum.

Core Activity & Liquidity

GDP Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Credit Impulse
0%
CPI Inflation
1.2%
Gold Reserves
2291.5t

Industrial & Consumption Velocity

Industrial Prod
0%
Retail Sales
4.9795%
PPI Deflation
0%
Fixed Asset Inv
3.1442%

Monetary Policy & External

PBOC Policy Rate
3.1%
FX Reserves
3.30tn

PBOC Liquidity Operations

Monetary regime · MLF · 7d Repo · M2

EasingPBOC Stance

1Y MLF Rate

Medium-term Lending Facility

2.00%

7d Reverse Repo

Short-term policy anchor

1.50%

M2 Growth YoY

Broad money supply growth

7.00%

PBOC vs Fed Gap

MLF minus Fed Funds Rate

-2.33%

Rate Corridor & M2 Growth — 12 Months

2025-092025-112026-012026-042026-052026-0502468
  • MLF Rate
  • 7d Repo
  • M2 Growth
Net Liquidity Signal (M2 - Nominal GDP proxy)+0.50%

Positive: Excess liquidity supports credit expansion

Real Economy Activity

PMI · Industrial Production · Retail · Deflation Pressure

445056

50.1

Expanding

NBS PMI

Official Manufacturing PMI

50.0 expansion threshold

445056

50.8

Expanding

Caixin PMI

Private sector / SME focus

50.0 expansion threshold

PMI — NBS vs Caixin (12 Months)

2025-022025-042025-062025-082025-102026-01464850525450
  • NBS
  • Caixin

Industrial Prod.

--%

Latest

Retail Sales

+5.0%

2024-01

Fixed Asset Inv.

+3.1%

2024-01

Corp. Distress

-2.5pts

2026-01

📡 Analyst Insight

PMI Divergence: When Caixin PMI significantly outperforms NBS PMI, it suggests private-sector SMEs are recovering faster than state-owned enterprises — a positive signal for urban employment and consumption. Watch for convergence as a regime confirmation trigger.

External Sector & Trade

Trade Balance · Export Growth · FX Reserves

Trade Balance

$104.8Bn

Monthly surplus/deficit

Export Growth

+10.7%

YoY nominal exports

PBOC FX Reserves

$3.48Tn

Total foreign exchange holdings

Monthly Trade Balance — 12 Months (USD Bn)

2025-062025-082025-102025-122026-040306090120

Export Growth YoY (%)

2025-082026-040481216

FX Reserves Trend (USD Tn)

2025-082026-0433.153.33.5

RMB Intervention Signal

PBOC FX reserves declining alongside strong trade surplus indicates stealth intervention via state bank proxies — a classic signal of capital outflow management. Rising reserves alongside surplus = passive accumulation (no intervention).

Energy & Transition Risk

Grid carbon intensity · Coal share · Renewable growth · Energy security

Coal Share

2026 data

59.6%

Renewables

Wind+Solar+Hydro

32.4%

Solar Share

Growing fastest

9.2%

Wind Share

Installed capacity #1 global

9.8%

Grid Carbon Intensity

560gCO₂/kWh
Heavy

Global avg ≈ 473 gCO₂/kWh (2024)

Generation Mix 2026

Coal59.6%
Solar9.2%
Wind9.8%
Hydro13.4%
Nuclear5.0%

Carbon-Adj. Energy Security Score

58

/ 100 · Rising = transition progress

Energy Transition Trajectory (2015–2026)

2016201720182019202020212022202320242026020406080
  • Coal %
  • Renewables %

Transition Alpha Signal

China is the world's largest renewable energy installer. Every 1% shift from coal to renewables reduces the carbon intensity by ~7 gCO₂/kWh. The trajectory indicates China will cross the global average threshold around 2028–2030 — a key milestone for ESG qualification of Chinese sovereign debt.

Proprietary Alpha Signals

Credit Impulse · De-Dollarization · Distress · PBOC/Fed Divergence

China Credit Impulse

New credit as % of GDP — 9-12M leading indicator

+2.3%GDP

+0.2

Source: PBoC Total Social Financing / Nominal GDP

🟢 Rising impulse → bullish for commodities & EM equities in 9-12M

De-Dollarization Velocity

USD share of COFER reserves YoY Δ

-1.2%

-1.2% YoY

Source: IMF COFER database (quarterly)

🔴 Accelerating USD decoupling — CIPS + CNY trade routes expanding

Corporate Distress Score

CPI-PPI spread — proxy for margin compression

-2.5 pts

-0.2

Negative = PPI deflation faster than CPI → industrial margin squeeze

🔴 Severe margin compression → watch for credit defaults & SOE support

PBOC vs Fed Divergence

MLF Rate minus Fed Funds Rate

-2.33%

Source: PBOC (MLF 1Y) vs Fed Funds Effective Rate

🔴 Wide — Capital Outflow Pressure — negative carry on CNY-denominated assets vs USD

Credit Impulse Trend — Lead Indicator for Global Demand

9-12M forward lead
2023-062023-122024-062024-122025-062026-01-0.900.91.82.7

China Macro Composite — Radar View

LiquidityCreditExternalUSD DecouplingMargins

Credit Impulse Deep Dive

What is China's Credit Impulse?

China's credit impulse measures the change in new credit issued as a percentage of GDP. It is one of the most powerful leading indicators for global economic activity, with a 9-12 month lead on commodity demand and EM asset prices.

A rising impulse signals accelerating credit growth, typically bullish for oil, copper, and EM equities. A falling impulse warns of demand contraction ahead.

Read: De-Dollarization →

Deflation Risk Monitor

China has been experiencing persistent PPI deflation since mid-2022, driven by a domestic demand shortfall and over-supply in industrial capacity. When PPI is deeply negative, it exports disinflationary pressure globally through cheaper manufactured goods.

CPI below zero would signal a deflationary trap, raising systemic risk for China's debt-laden property sector.

China De-Dollarization Strategy

Gold Accumulation

PBoC has been a systematic buyer of gold since 2022, building reserves to reduce USD dependency. This directly reduces the share of USD in China's reserve portfolio.

Bilateral CNY Trade

China has accelerated local-currency trade deals with Russia, Saudi Arabia, and ASEAN nations — denominating commodity purchases in CNY rather than USD.

CIPS Infrastructure

China's Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) now processes $400B+ yearly, providing a parallel settlement rail to SWIFT for CNY transactions.

Spheres of Institutional Influence

Spheres of Influence

Analyzing global institutional dominance: Western MDBs vs. Eastern Finance vs. Japan (JICA)

Africa
EAST DOMINANT
$107.0B
WEST42%
EAST58%
JAPAN0%
Latin America
WEST DOMINANT
$107.0B
WEST79%
EAST21%
JAPAN0%
SE Asia
EAST DOMINANT
$79.0B
WEST48%
EAST52%
JAPAN0%
FRONTIER MARKET CAPTURE
Low$107.0B
Lower Middle$79.0B
Upper Middle$107.0B
DOMINANCE STATUS: MULTIPOLAR
Data suggests a transition from a binary West/East split to a multipolar institutional environment where Japan (JICA) operates as a critical independent balance force in Southeast Asia.

Structural Analysis: China's Economic Pivot & Global Influence

The China Macro Hub tracks the deliberate structural deceleration of China's property sector alongside the corresponding acceleration in high-quality manufacturing, green technology, and sovereign influence architecture. Analyzing the People's Bank of China (PBoC) monetary plumbing and credit impulse cycles provides leading indicators for global commodity demand and emerging market liquidity.

A key focus of this hub is the tracking of De-Dollarization vectors and the expansion of parallel settlement infrastructure like the mBridge network. By monitoring the spheres of institutional influence, including BRICS+ trade alignments and bilateral swap lines, the timeline for multi-polar reserve optionality becomes quantifiable.

The shift from export-led accumulation to domestic consumption and strategic industrial autonomy is modeled through our proprietary alpha signals, visualizing the long-term relative growth rate of the Chinese economy against developed market peers.

Terminal Active: Capture Mode