DETECTION: TIGHTENING
Mission Intelligence Lab

China 15th Five-Year Plan

STALE

An institutional-grade telemetry dashboard tracking the 2026–2030 roadmap for high-quality development, technological self-reliance, and national economic security.

Active Monitoring
Last Updated: March 14, 2026

2026-2030 Strategic Milestone Timeline

Launch Year

Kickoff

Official activation of 15th FYP guidelines

Security Pivot

Amy Centennial

Achieving centennial goal of modernizing the military

Supply Chain Peak

Independence 80%

Target for critical supply chain self-sufficiency

Energy Inflection

Renewable > Coal

Renewable capacity expected to decouple from coal base

Carbon Peak

Strategic Goal

Reaching absolute carbon emission peak ahead of schedule

Quantitative Performance Targets

High Priority

Grain Output

1.45 Trillion Jin

Baseline: 1.40 Trillion Jin
SHIFT
High Priority

Carbon Intensity

-18%

Baseline: -13.5%
SHIFT
High Priority

R&D Growth

>7% Yearly

Baseline: 2.8% of GDP
SHIFT
High Priority

Unemployment Rate

<5.5%

Baseline: 5.2%
SHIFT
High Priority

Digital Economy Add

>15%

Baseline: 10.5%
SHIFT

Mission Control Radar

Tech Self-RelianceGreen TransitionCommon ProsperityNational SecurityNew Quality Productive ForcesDigital ChinaRural RevitalizationHigh-Level Opening UpHuman CapitalSovereign Resilience
Tech Self-Reliance
Systemic
Idx: 10
Green Transition
Carbon Peak Shift
Idx: 9
Common Prosperity
Structural
Idx: 8
National Security
Holistic
Idx: 10
Strategist Deep Insight

The 15th FYP represents a fundamental shift from "Growth at any cost" to "High-quality resilience." The key metric to watch is R&D growth and supply chain self-sufficiency indices, which now carry higher political weighting than raw GDP.

Key Tipping Point: 2027
Military centennial goals and semiconductor node independence parity targets align.

Strategic Policy Shifts: 14th vs 15th Plan

Economic Driver
14th FYP
Real Estate & Infrastructure
15th FYP
New Quality Productive Forces

Pivot from debt-fueled building to high-tech manufacturing and AI-driven efficiency.

Climate Strategy
14th FYP
Energy Intensity Control
15th FYP
Carbon Emission Control

Shift from limiting total energy use to specifically targeting carbon output per unit.

Primary Goal
14th FYP
Moderate Prosperity
15th FYP
High-Quality Development

Focus on domestic technological breakthroughs and structural resilience over raw GDP volume.

Cross-Terminal Impact Matrix

Global Risk

GRIT Index

High Sensitivity — Direct influence.

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Energy

Energy Security

Transformation — Systemic influence.

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Finance

Capital Flows

Security Friction — High influence.

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Geopolitics

De-Dollarization

Resilience Driver — Core influence.

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India

Corporate India

Manufacturing Shift — Strategic influence.

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"Development and Security must be in dynamic equilibrium."

Data source: Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC), Official Release (March 2026). Forecast models internalized from GraphiQuestor Quantitative Intelligence.

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Terminal Active: Capture Mode