Fiscal Health
US 10-Year Treasury Yield
4.48Last observation 2026-07-01
2d ago
Time Series
Formula
Yield = Market-clearing coupon rate on 10-year US Treasury note (DGS10)
- Real yield component – Inflation expectations subtracted
- Term premium – Duration risk compensation
- Policy rate expectations – Fed funds path implied by OIS curve
Why It Matters
The 10-year Treasury yield is the global risk-free rate anchor. Its level and slope versus 2-year yields drive mortgage rates, equity discount rates, and sovereign borrowing costs worldwide. In fiscal dominance regimes, the 10Y becomes politically sensitive — the Fed may cap yields (implicit YCC) when debt service costs threaten sustainability.
Institutional Use
Fixed income PMs, liability-driven investors, and mortgage REITs anchor to the 10Y. Macro hedge funds watch 10Y-2Y spread for recession signals. GraphiQuestor tracks UST yields on country profiles and the US Macro Fiscal Lab.
How to Read It
Restrictive10Y > 4.5%
Elevated3.5% < 10Y ≤ 4.5%
Neutral2.5% ≤ 10Y ≤ 3.5%
Accommodative10Y < 2.5%